You are viewing the archives of the old northcoastoregon.com. Please visit the new North Coast Oregon at: http://www.northcoastoregon.com/

Dick Morris: Who Needs What From Iowa Today?

by Patrick McGee

By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN

Published in the New York Post on January 3, 2008.

The Iowa caucuses mean different things to different candidates. Of course Obama, Clinton and Edwards, for the Democrats, and Huckabee and Romney, for the Republicans, are vying for a win in Iowa. But there are separate sub-primaries going on as well: Obama v Edwards for the position of chief challenger to Clinton, McCain v Giuliani for the right to wear the “moderate” Republican mantle, and Fred Thompson v Oblivion for the right to stay in the race.

So here’s the scorecard to use in keeping track of what each candidate needs to get from Iowa.

Hillary Clinton

If she scores a decisive triumph, the race for the nomination is almost over. A victory here would likely propel her to a win in New Hampshire and the nomination would be hers’. But she doesn’t need to win. Her national base is so strong that she just has to stop anyone else from winning. If no clear winner emerges, but the results show, instead, a three-way tie with Obama and Edwards, or a two-way tie between herself and either of her challengers, she comes out the winner. But if she clearly loses by a good margin or finishes third, she has blown a major opportunity and is in for a long cold winter of primaries. She won’t be knocked out in Iowa no matter what, but she could be knocked down.

Barack Obama

He’s got to win in Iowa. He is so far behind Hillary in the national standings that he needs a decisive victory to give him the momentum to prevail in New Hampshire and to compete in Florida and on Super Tuesday. He also needs to leave the pesky John Edwards far behind so he can consolidate the anti-Hillary vote behind his candidacy.

John Edwards

His immediate need is to finish close to or ahead of Obama so he can show that a vote for him is not wasted. With pro and anti Hillary sentiment so strong, Edwards risks being excluded as an also ran if he doesn’t make it. He also needs Hillary not to win decisively so that the race stays alive. He has a decent shot in New Hampshire if he can stay in the race and make sure there still is one.

Mike Huckabee

Win or die are his choices. The Huck-a-boom will be right in the ancient history books with the Howard Dean surge in September of 2004. But even if Huckabee wins in Iowa, he’ll probably lose in New Hampshire. Then his candidacy will come back to another game-set-match point in Michigan the following week.

Mitt Romney

He doesn’t have to win, place, or show. He’s got a big checkbook so he can survive any kind of showing and stay in the game. But, a defeat in Iowa might make him vulnerable to McCain in New Hampshire. A loss in the first two states would cost him Michigan and he would limp into super Tuesday with only a checkbook to protect him. Only.

John McCain

He’s got to finish third – or, in other words, beat Rudy. If he does, he has a good shot at winning New Hampshire and getting back into the game. If he doesn’t, Romney will win New Hampshire and McCain will be out of the race. Huckabee has to hope McCain does finish third so Romney doesn’t win New Hampshire and, therefore, doesn’t win Michigan. Got it?

Rudy Giuliani

The Republican front runner is in a parallel situation with Hillary. He won’t be knocked out no matter how badly he does. But finishing below McCain means that he has to split the moderate vote with the charismatic Arizona Senator and could weaken his chances in Florida and on Super Tuesday. Rudy can lose Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina and still survive to compete in the big states that follow. But he lost a golden chance to avoid a fight by winning in Iowa.

And, if Hillary wins big in Iowa, it will help McCain and hurt Romney in New Hampshire. Why? All the independents who would have voted for or against Mrs. Clinton in New Hampshire will pile into the Republican Primary and may boost McCain to victory (if he survives Iowa).

And…by the same token, Rudy needs Hillary to win in the early rounds so he can draw independents into the Republican Primary to vote for him rather than the religious right crowd.

Having fun yet?

Jan 3, 12:01 pm | Patrick McGee
Click stars to rate this article. This article hasn't been rated yet.

9 comments on this article (post your own)

1 On Jan 3, 12:27 pm, Patrick McGee wrote:

It it “The Media” is in “Denial” or just deliberately “Snubbing” Ron Paul?

It is clearly obvious many do not want to admit he even exists.

In what states will he get any kind of footing do you think?

Me?

I’m liking Huckabee at the moment and have some interest in his “Tax Plan”

2 On Jan 3, 12:55 pm, Tryan Hartill wrote:

This is gonna be quite a horse race on the Repub side.

Ron Paul will be in the thick of things for second place.

My Guess is:

Huck – 28%
Romney/Paul/McCain all between 14% and 20%
Fred – Just below 10%
Rudy/others- Well below 10%

On the Dem side, Obama and Hillary will be very close, probably around 35% Each, Edwards at 20% and the rest under 5%.

After Iowa, but before Super Tuesday, I’m guessing that all Dems will drop out, except Hillary and one Hillary challenger. (Probably Obama)

3 On Jan 3, 02:19 pm, The Guy Who Writes This wrote:

Sadly the two who offer real change, Paul and Kucinich will be totally over looked. People don’t want change at all, they seem to want another angry white bible thumper or more milk toast democrats.

4 On Jan 3, 02:28 pm, Patrick McGee wrote:

, Huckabee’s Tax Plan called the “FAIR TAX,” would eliminate federal income and investment taxes and replace them with a 23 percent federal sales tax. The poor would pay no net sales tax up to the poverty level, and every household would receive a rebate equal to sales taxes paid on essential goods and services.

5 On Jan 3, 02:52 pm, THartill wrote:

Ron Paul’s fair tax plan is much better, eliminate the federal income tax and replace it with….....................................nothing!

The Federal Government spends 35% more since Clinton left office and the income tax is 35% of revenues….works out perfect.

6 On Jan 3, 05:08 pm, Patrick McGee wrote:

And which of the two are more believeable Tryan?

Come on!

You have a brilliant mind Hartill and not easily boondoggled but you got to sell me on Paul’s plan as being workable.

Paul’s plan is just going to shut down the system cold? All programs cut to the bare bones?

And which programs requiring tax funding you going to axe?

I hate to say this but I’m hearing little Ross Perrot here.

7 On Jan 3, 06:29 pm, THartill wrote:

Bare Bones? Please!

Here is 25% right here, which doesn’t sound unreasonable at all.

Turn the drug war over to the States….save another 50 billion or so. Cut every Federal Government Budget 5% across the Board. Cut every subsidy/grant to all companies that make over a million a year profit. Ax (or at least cut it 75%) the Dept of Education and let the States run their own schools.

Very easy to do 35%.

8 On Jan 4, 05:53 am, The Guy Who Writes This wrote:

Legalize and tax the drugs, that will turn the everything around.

9 On Jan 5, 10:49 pm, I need some KY Im tired of being dry humped wrote:

“Biggest Tax raiser in Arkansas, Mike Huckabee or Bill Clinton”? Find out the stats here at www.ucdailynews.com/politics/12043976.html ,,, If you want Dem policies vote for a Dem… Mike Shamnesty Huckabee, should be his full name…... If they would eliminate all taxes and only tax the newly legalized drugs, I would be for that

Post A Comment

(required)

(required but not displayed)



(No HTML, Textile only please. Live comment preview below.)

this is not Spam.

preview

:

Nov 19, 04:08 am


Previous Article:
« Coos Bay LNG Foes Challenge Local LNG Facility Approval

Next Article:
Iowa Caucus Results for 2008 President...Democratic and Republican Party...Obama Huckabee Leading »

NCO Reader Comments


cnabas (New Tillamook and Clatsop County Blog)
pasgettaorri (The Vote 2006!)
pasgettaorri (The Vote 2006!)
connie (Focus on 49: BOCC work session grapples with difficult legislature)
Delores (Focus on 49: BOCC work session grapples with difficult legislature)
Kristen Molina (North Coast AA Round Up Seaside April 4th 5th 6th 2008)
Madonna Carr (What does the Federal Government Do with our Taxes?)
Wallace Kennedy (More D.A. Talk)
Ollie Woodward (Fort George Brewery Coming Alive)
Augustine Sweet (CCFOG - First report on Lee recall petition signatures)
Glynn Oconnor (A gun show ... without guns ?)
Lorne Riley (notes from Clean Slate PAC meeting 2/13/07)
Clare Ruiz (Durban Group Discusses Carbon Trading and LNG in Astoria)
Stewart Hernandez (Random News For Friday)
Johnna Acosta (Measure 50....Healthy Kids...Cigarette Taxes)
Nathan Schroeder (Housing Credit Crunch: Who to Blame?)
Tammi Chase (Hands of Peace held for MLK Jr Day)
Maxine Richardson (News Sidebar)
Maryann Le (Websites...How to do links...Textpattern, HTML, Subscribe)
Daniel Estrada (Warrenton City Manager Resigns)

Recent Articles

View All Articles...

Feeds



Home | Archives | Contribute | Back to Top
Take What You Want 2008 NorthCoastOregon.com unless otherwise indicated.
Please email us with any questions or comments.
Site created by Upspring Design.