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Although the NW corner of Oregon hasn’t felt much of the housing crunch yet, most of the rest of the country is starting to feel it.
This will be a multiple part series on who to blame it on. Here is a quick overview…..
It’s hard to pick which one to start with first, but Brokers start with “B” so here we are.
If we compare the Real Estate market to the illegal drug market, brokers would be the dealers. They find the customers and find the loans. They make a commission off the sale that is generally paid for by the lender through a higher loan amount. They must also make sure the borrower has the means to pay back the loan and if the property they want to buy will hold it’s value in case of foreclosure. They also must disclose certain facts about the loan to the borrowers per Federal and State Laws. Many follow the rules and run their Broker business with the highest lending practices, and some don’t.
Mortgage Brokers are involved with roughly 2/3 of all Home Loans.
Banks are involved in almost every home loan, as they ultimately come up with the money to allow the borrower to buy a house. About 1/3 of all home loans are given directly to the borrower from the Bank. With the rest involving a middleman (Brokers). In years past they have worked more directly with borrowers, but have “outsourced” much of the lending process to Brokers in the last few years.
Many large Wall Street firms buy the home loans from the banks, sometimes hundreds or thousands at a time. They then bundle them in packages for investors depending on the risk of the loans. A package of high risk loans would usually mean a high risk/reward for an investor and the opposite for a low risk package of loans. A large chunk of retirement money, that has been invested by everyday Americans, went into “buying” these home loans through Wall Street firms.
Opinions are all over the lot on this one. Some say that the Government does not go far enough to police the industry. Barney Frank, who chairs the House Financial Services Committee, has introduced a Bill that would ban money of the incentives and rewards given throughout the Mortgage Industry. Ron Paul takes a different approach and blames the Fed for controlling the money supply and lowering interest rates too low in 2001.
You can find loads of information to back up your view on this one.
Going back to the Drug Market, borrowers are the final buyers and the users of Home Loans. A responsible borrower would match their future payments to their future income. “Sure that 4,000 square foot house on the hill would be nice, but we just can’t afford it, this 1,400 sq. ft. fixer upper is closer to what we can afford”. Some borrowers have different take….”ohhh look at the beautiful house…. We could have a nicer house than the Johnson’s!!!.... We’ll take it!”. The demand for these borrowers has never been as high as in the last few years, so lenders have come up with all sorts of interesting new ways to make it a reality.
Getting people the house they want, even though they might not be able to make the payments, has been done more and more using sub-prime Mortgages.
People that meet certain credit and income requirements, and if the house they are buying will generally hold it’s value, can get a Prime Mortgage. These have the least amount of risk for the lender and have a lower interest rate attached. People that can’t meet the requirements have to go the sub-prime route. In years past this was what the “hard money” loan industry took care of. Hard Money loans are usually only asset-backed and have a high interest rate. The borrower and the lender both go in knowing that there is a good chance that the loan will not be re-payed, but the house/property will be used for collateral in case of foreclosure. Hard Money loans made up a very small percentage of home loans and this part of the industry was basically a “Pawn-shop or title loan” for your house.
Housing prices don’t always rise 10% a year. If you look at any housing graph you will see that housing has stayed fairly flat, with a gradual rise up over the years, mainly from inflation. Only in the last 5 years do you see it shoot up 10-20% per year. Even if housing costs dropped 50%, we still would be in line with the prices in the late 90’s. This can be compared to you getting a yearly $500 bonus in your December paycheck, but in January your check goes back to the normal amount…..and then going to your boss and chewing him out for giving you a January pay-cut.
2 On Nov 26, 08:55 am, THartill wrote:
I know what you mean JT. But it seems like prices are still high around these parts. Portland is getting press about being the only city where prices are higher than a year ago. I’m guessing it’s the same for Eugene?
(P.S. I had no idea what would happen if I ever got on the front page of OregonLive…Holy Smokes am I getting the hits!)
3 On Nov 26, 09:54 am, The Guy Who Writes This wrote:
I was speaking with a neighbor last year about a development near where we live. My neighbor said, “All these young families buying these expensive houses and they will all be for sale again when they see how broke they will become from paying that sort of mortgage.” Sure enough, five of the seven houses there are on the market again.
4 On Nov 26, 10:13 am, Pierce wrote:
Ron Paul’s got it right. The Fed sets the tone for all money grubbing lenders and starry eyed buyers. I would not be surprised to see prices dropping for at least the next couple three years.
5 On Nov 26, 11:41 am, matt wrote:
front page no less! had to look around for it but found it. quick get more stories up.
6 On Nov 26, 01:46 pm, truthiness wrote:
What many fail to realize is the measures and laws, (49) for instance, including multiple layers of government (Metro) and SDC’s (development costs) etc. are limitations and obstacles to building, creating an artificial scarcity of homes, which will impact our economy. Basic economics 101 says scarcity of supply and high demand creates inflation. So while you continue to rent waiting for the prices to tumble, thousands continue to move here, the elderly are living longer, and the baby boom continues (and don’t get me started on the illegal immigrants needing a place to live too). Therefore, when you voted for measure 47 you created additional limits to development (which I’m not saying is bad) but that will sustain the shortage of housing, thereby driving the price of homes up. Remember, PDX housing prices, although high, are low compared to every major city on the west coast. Also, the number of sub-prime loans written in Oregon is substantially lower than in the ground zero states of Calif. Florida, Michigan. Oregon will fair well as this works out because our market didn’t go nuts when compared to other west coast cities (although I’m sure some would argue with me)
The greatest thing that may come out of this situation is awareness by the public; buyers will be more educated about the awesome responsibility of owning a home. And it may even be worth more in 30 years.
7 On Nov 26, 03:33 pm, Pierce wrote:
“The greatest thing that may come out of this situation is awareness by the public; buyers will be more educated about the awesome responsibility of owning a home.”
A good education is never cheap. You are right about Oregon being insulated from the worst of the sub prime problems. A least Oregon has plenty of water and will attract some of those able to move from parched parts of the country.8 On Nov 27, 01:27 pm, walter richards wrote:
You forgot one point of blame on the gov’t – unConstitutional “ownership” of land. Thus, when the BLM (say) asserts that it “owns” land … despite the fact that the BLM is an unConstitutional agency, not to mention the strict Constitutional restrictions on what land the gov’t CAN own … there is less land available for development.
The other day, I saw a news story about a web-based lending system for small businesses in other countries. You can contribute (say) $100 as a loan to a basket-maker in Rhodesia, to help them start their business and they pay you back. Totally bypassing banks. IIRC, they said over 95% of the loans had been paid back. And that was with something like $10-million loaned out. Anyways, where was I going with this? Oh yeah. I can imagine something like this paired with Habitat for Humanity to help provide home ownership to lower-income families.
9 On Nov 27, 02:48 pm, Patrick McGee wrote:
Search that loan assistance thing out a bit more Walter, I saw something on that a while back and would be interested looking at it.
Something like that would be interesting to do and quite a bit more rewarding would it not as opposed to some multi-agency and abstract non-profit?
10 On Nov 28, 11:05 am, truthiness wrote:
Walter, that program is a product of the International Rotary. I don’t see its implementation here in the USA due to our various state and federal usury laws. Too much liability/risk, but Rhodesia isn’t quite the litigeous society.
11 On Dec 6, 05:09 am, Mom of Three wrote:
Blame Canada!
12 On Dec 15, 11:09 am, Julie Davis wrote:
Great article. How about “Blame the breeders”, “Blame the immigrants” or “blame the American Dream”. Housing is getting more expensive since the coasts of the USA are probably now more dense then Europe. There’s just no where left to put everyone so we are bidding up the houses so high since we have an expectation that everyone should be able to afford a house and a family by age 30. The fact is that there are not enough resources and technology available to do that and it will only get worse as gas becomes more scarce.
13 On Dec 15, 12:54 pm, Tryan Hartill wrote:
Thanks Julie
I could go on and on…Real Estate people…Breeders….the Fed….
BTW are you the “Bank” Julie Davis?
14 On Dec 21, 05:20 pm, kilogramass wrote:
What a bunch of whiners”Houses are cheap on the Oregon Coast I have 3 homes”I paid 90k for them and fixed them up why can’t you. I also see that Richardo Lee is being impeached about time that we had a public impeachment…. I am also excited that the waterfront is being bought up by the rich portland people and turning it into the pearl district,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
15 On Dec 21, 06:31 pm, THartill wrote:
What “Oregon Coast” town are the 3 houses in?
What are the addresses?
16 On Feb 2, 07:21 am, Gary wrote:
I just wanted to give my view. Just remember that a City only grows up once. Portland is growing up into a fine city. We have massive room to grow into a great city. Massive as in space, not so much. But are planning in this city is some of the best in the country. We have good bones, a great location on the map, and a very desirable area. This city is going to do nothing but grow and get more expensive. If you are waiting for prices to fall your are crazy. Why would you wait like a little follower tell home prices start going up and buy when everyone else does. That’s when you sale not buy. There is a plenty of options on the market with lots and lots to choose from. There is also plenty of people over correcting the market. So there is some really good deals out there. You have people saling there homes just because they are scared. Makes no scenes to me at all. So you first time buyers don’t wait around, buy now. Just make sure that what you buy is something that you can really afford. There is a lot of homes close in Portland on the east side that are still cheap. That area of Portland will never have anymore room to expand its all done. Cant go wrong in any area over the river. Its 7am and I have been up all night researching security law for my law suit so excuse my miss spelling and jumping around.
Just remember my local peoples. Portland is being discovered and the world is finding out fast. The people are coming the jobs and companies will fallow. Home Prices will continue to go up as the city gets tighter. A CITY ONLY GROWS UP ONCE IN A LIFE TIME !!!!
So what does that mean? When a city only grows up once in a life time? It means you better own a piece of it while its growing up. Don’t miss out on that appreciation by being a renter. If you think Portland has already seen its appreciation, your crazy. Portland is not even close to done. It will cool off temporarily. The financing is all here that we had a year ago, you just have to look harder for it. Rates are so so Low right now. Just buy smart and hang on to that sucker for the next 10 years and you will be set. If you need to move before the next ten to fifteen years then you rent it out and buy your self another one. Very easy people. You will save more money this way then you could ever by dumping money in your 401k program.
Thanks for reading my up all night no sleep gibberish talk, Gary “Solo”
Anybody know of a really good Real Estate attorney that knows his Securities Law?
Investors Wanted !
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1 On Nov 26, 07:14 am, JT wrote:
Oh yeah, the housing credit crunch will soon play out and many more tragedies will follow, renting is a good option right now for me, I can’t wait for housing prices to drop so I can buy up at a great price :)