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The Fed Energy Outlook vs. Oregon's

by Tryan Hartill

Lot’s of Oil!

Accoding to the EIA, not only will we be able to beat decline rates (Which we have not done for 16 months), but we will also be able increase total supply to over 100 million barrels a day.

Where will the increase in supply come from?
The U.S.A for starters!

Yes, the USA has been in decline for 35+ years, but all of a sudden it will change course, starting very quickly:

From the Oil Drum

The bump in the U.S. production line was when Prudoe Bay started producing and this only bumped it up about 1 million Barrels per day. So, the EIA expects 2 Prudoe Bay’s to come online in the next 3 1/2 years!
But really one should read the whole report. This is only the tip of the iceburg. Other amazing predictions include Mexico, Canada, England, North Sea, China…Heck I could go on and on. It seems every country that is currently declining, will have a huge turn-around in the next few years….truely amazing.
This so-called “Energy Agency” first predicts the demand needed for the next 20 years and then figures the supply from there.
I can only imagine that this is orders from the “Top”.
No other way to explain it.

Ted K

Yesterday Ted K. along with Michigan Gov Jennifer Granholm, hosted a energy “conference call”.

Audio Here

Some of the commentators at the OilDrum were very impressed with Ted’s answers.

Robert Rapier:

Overall, it was a mixed bag. Gov. Granholm came across like a politician, offering solutions, but also out to score political points. Gov. Kulongoski sounded sincere, really focused on conservation, and did not attempt to score political points. It felt almost like a “good cop, bad cop” routine from my perspective.
I took notes, but hopefully they will make the transcript or a recording available. Gov. Granholm went first. Her “left hook” was “oil companies are bad”. Her “right cross” was “ethanol is good”. She went for the left hook most of the time. Here was the gist of her comments:
Fuel prices are too high, and oil companies are making too much money. She wants legislation to cap profits. She claimed that oil companies are not investing in alternative energy technologies (this is not true, but maybe they aren’t investing in the ones she wants them to invest in). She made a passing remark at conservation, but didn’t sound too passionate about it. She piled on oil companies again and really vilified them. (My concern before-hand was that this would be the tenor of the call). She really pushed ethanol, and she said Michigan needs a huge number of ethanol plants. She thinks we need more E85 pumps, and complained that the oil companies have not been eager to embrace them. Near the end of her opening statement, she reiterated that oil companies are not eager to cap profits. (What sector is eager to cap profits?)
At this point, I was thinking that America really needs a new political party. But they then went to Gov. Kulongoski. He really focused on the conservation angle, and he came across as less political, and more focused on finding solutions than in scoring points. He discussed what Oregon is working on. He has established targets for government agencies, and in 4 years wants all government agencies to run off of 100% renewable electricity. He said the state is making large investments into alternative electricity – wave, geothermal, wind, solar. He also noted that Oregon has no coal or oil deposits, which is one driver in their push for sustainability. He did mention biofuels, and also seemed to think ethanol will play a big part. He said he drives an E85 vehicle.

Hit the OilDrum link for more discussion…...

Jun 23, 12:00 am | Tryan Hartill
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5 comments on this article (post your own)

1 On Jun 23, 01:40 am, Lee wrote:

Whose the top. Queen Bea?

Some think they took Iraq to keep the oil in the ground for much later sales.—-

some are hoping to get control of Venzuela’s vast supply of heavy oil, and of course there is off shore drilling.——
No divestment in their game plan.

I heard that gasoline is actually a by-product of of other uses of oil. A $50 barrel of oil after fertilizer, plastics and other uses, gives profits of around $25,000. Gasoline is never consistent in ingredients. Just baried by-products. You’d have to love the blue marble more than a little bit to give up this cash cow. In other words, it won’t be like taking candy from a baby.

2 On Jun 23, 06:31 am, Walter Richards wrote:

The thing the I noticed, was the jump in “Renewables”. That doubles (or close to it), by 2030. Considering how “radical” the gov’t views renewables, I’m betting that’s a “very conservative” estimate.

3 On Jun 23, 11:38 am, Tryan Hartill wrote:

Radical?

One thing for sure, there is no plan B. If all works out as planned by the EIA, we might be ok, although our environment will be so screwed up by 2030 that it might not even be worth it to still be alive. The 2 things that pollute very little are going to produce very little of our energy.

On another note I read today that the City of Portland wants to make B5 and ethanol-10 mandatory at every pump in Portland.
Not sure if that will work or not without a Statewide mandate.

4 On Jun 23, 09:19 pm, Lee wrote:

Does anyone here know anyone with a corn burning stove. It is economical if clean corn feed is cheap. They are looking for dealers.

A new one out can burn corn (15% moisture or less), wood product pellets, many grains, dry cherry stones, etc. Some just burn corn.

Maybe in tillamook?

Some are furnaces or fireplace inserts, as well as free standing stoves.

go to iburncorn.com for starters.

5 On Jun 24, 10:20 am, Lee wrote:

Water intensive oil shale? If it is on Federal land, the people own it. Maybe someone will point out that we have weapons of mass destruction, like China, and they’ll rid us of Saddam Bush, but terrorize us forever more. It’s not like we don’t deserve it.

http://www.stansberryonline.com/OIL/20060515-OIL-COL.asp?pcode=WOILG610&alias=200604OIL-49&scode=XOILG610

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