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PNW Salmon: Part II Ocean

by Tryan Hartill

La Nina

In years where the South Pacific is cooler and there is more rain in the PNW,(La Nina) the salmon seem to return in much greater numbers.
The opposite is true for El Nino.
We have been in a major El Nino pattern for 50 years except:

  • Early/Mid 70’s.
  • Mid to late 80’s
  • A few years in the late 90’s

Here are the strong and moderate La Nina years:

Strong La Niña Years

1909-10, 1916-17, 1933-34, 1942-43, 1949-50,
1955-56, 1970-71, 1973-74, 1975-76, 1988-89

Moderate La Niña Years

1897-98, 1898-99, 1903-04, 1906-07, 1908-09,
1910-11, 1917-18, 1920-21, 1924-25, 1938-39,
1943-44, 1944-45, 1950-51, 1954-55, 1964-65,
1967-68, 1971-72, 1974-75, 1983-84, 1984-85,
1985-86, 1995-96

Notice how many times La Nina happened in the 20 years from 1897-1917?
And how there were 5 La Nina years in the 70’s and 4 in the 80’s and very few recently?

Now the salmon catches over the last 140 years:

The numbers match fairly close, as large numbers were caught through 1924 and small spikes happened in the mid 70’s and mid 80’s.
Now for the good news, La Nina is back:

Feb. 2, 2006 — The NOAA Climate Prediction Center announced today the official return of La Niña. Agency forecasters predicted La Niña was forming nearly three weeks ago. Oceanic sea surface temperatures have met the operational definition of La Niña for the November through January period. La Niña is the periodic cooling of ocean waters in the east-central equatorial Pacific, which can impact the typical alignment of weather patterns around the globe.

PDO: More good news?

Pacific Decadal Oscillation is the tempature of surface water in the North-Eastern Pacific.
When the PDO is high the salmon seem to show up in Alaska in bigger numbers. We have had 3 1/2 years of high PDO until the last 6 months, which are averaging 1/3 of a degree lower than average.
In the last 3 1/2 years, Alaska has had major catches while the fish numbers here have been way below average since the last low PDO; late 2001 to early 2002.

Could this year be a good catch?

Or will we even know?

A precipitous decline in the number of salmon expected to return this year to the Klamath River may force a shutdown of the commercial salmon season for about 700 miles of the Oregon and Northern California coasts, fisheries experts say.

Decline Expected?
I say an increase expected, but what do I know?

Next post will be about the dams and how they have a lot to do with the major drop in salmon from 1930 on.

Mar 16, 10:41 pm | Tryan Hartill
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1 comment on this article (post your own)

1 On Feb 25, 05:46 pm, Kevin Mc Grath wrote:

What is the best tempature for catching ocean Salmon off the neoth coast
Thanks

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